Andreas Kotsadam, Magnus B. Rasmussen, Kalle Moene, Anders Kjelsrud, Haakon Gjerløw
Journal: Journal of Economic History (pp. 1-33)
Forthcoming
To what extent do strike threats prompt firms to adopt capital-intensive methods to deter strikes or labor-intensive strategies to maintain flexibility during work stoppages? We introduce a theoretical model that demonstrates how threats of industrial action influence capital investments through relative factor prices and the power dynamics between workers and employers. Using newly digitized data from 3,141 industrial conflicts and collective agreements in Norway during the interwar period, our findings indicate that strikes generally drive firms toward less capital-intensive technologies. This trend is particularly pronounced in conflicts resolved at the branch or national level, where strike threats may appear more exogenous to firms.
罢工威胁在多大程度上促使企业采用资本密集型方法来阻止罢工，或采用劳动密集型策略以在停工期间保持灵活性？我们引入了一个理论模型，展示了劳资行动威胁如何通过相对要素价格和劳资双方的权力动态影响资本投资。利用挪威战间期3,141次劳资冲突和集体协议的新数字化数据，我们的研究发现，罢工通常促使企业转向资本密集度较低的技术。这一趋势在部门或国家层面解决的冲突中尤为明显，因为这些层面的罢工威胁对企业而言可能更具外生性。
Sebastian Till Braun, Jan Stuhler
Journal: Journal of Economic History (pp. 1-38)
Forthcoming
With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Among the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or endured years of captivity. We examine the effects of such war exposures on labor market careers, showing that they often become apparent only at certain life stages. While war injuries reduced employment in old age, former prisoners of war prolonged their time in the workforce before retiring. Many displaced workers, especially women, never returned to employment. These responses align with standard life-cycle theory and thus likely hold relevance for other conflicts.
二战造成7000万人死亡，仍是历史上最具破坏性的冲突。在幸存者中，数百万人流离失所、从战场伤残归来或经历了数年的囚禁。我们研究了此类战争暴露对劳动力市场生涯的影响，发现这些影响往往只在特定人生阶段才显现。虽然战争伤残降低了老年人的就业率，但前战俘在退休前延长了工作时间。许多流离失所的工人，尤其是女性，再也没有回到工作岗位。这些反应符合标准生命周期理论，因此可能对其他冲突也具有参考意义。
Pawel Janas
Journal: Journal of Economic History (pp. 1-36)
Forthcoming
Between 1910 and 1940, U.S. high school graduation rates rose five-fold, driving twentieth-century economic growth. I explore how the Great Depression's surge in youth unemployment influenced this trend, emphasizing gender and socioeconomic disparities. Using linked census data and newly digitized city-level unemployment rates, I find that youth unemployment significantly increased high school and post-secondary completion among higher-income boys, while effects on girls and lower-income youths were negligible. These results underscore the role of household resources in leveraging educational opportunities, as financial constraints limited disadvantaged groups from benefiting from reduced opportunity costs.
1910年至1940年间，美国高中毕业率增长了五倍，推动了二十世纪的经济增长。我研究了大萧条时期青年失业率飙升如何影响这一趋势，重点关注性别和社会经济差异。利用链接的普查数据和新数字化的城市级失业率，我发现青年失业率显著提高了高收入男孩的高中和高等教育完成率，而对女孩和低收入青年的影响微乎其微。这些结果凸显了家庭资源在利用教育机会中的作用，因为经济约束限制了弱势群体从降低的机会成本中受益。
Matthew Curtis
Journal: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 38-66)
Published
When did marriage become strongly assortative? I use a uniquely suitable database from Quebec 1800–1970 to provide the long-run perspective necessary to answer this question. First, I develop a novel method that reveals that marriage was highly assortative as far back as the early nineteenth century. Next, I show this matching depends on the individual human capital of women, not just on family backgrounds. Finally, I show that mothers had an effect on child outcomes independent of the fathers. Thus, despite deeply conservative gender norms, marriage matching—and women—have always mattered for social mobility.
婚姻何时开始高度同类匹配？我利用魁北克1800-1970年的独特数据库来回答这一问题所需的长期视角。首先，我开发了一种新方法，揭示了早在十九世纪初婚姻就已高度同类匹配。接下来，我表明这种匹配取决于女性个人的人力资本，而不仅仅是家庭背景。最后，我证明母亲对孩子结果的影响独立于父亲。因此，尽管存在深刻的保守性别规范，婚姻匹配——以及女性——对社会流动一直都很重要。
Jason Lennard, Meredith M. Paker
Journal: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 258-286)
Published
This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression.
本文评估了一项重大政策转变——1931年9月金本位制的暂停——如何影响了两次世界大战期间英国的就业结果。我们使用新的高频行业层面数据集和双重差分技术来隔离贬值对出口商的影响。在微观层面，脱离金本位制使出口密集型行业的失业率相对于非出口行业降低了2.7个百分点。在宏观层面，这一效应刺激了劳动力市场、财政前景和经济增长。因此，贬值是从大萧条深渊中复苏的重要初始推动力。
Lyndon Moore, Gertjan Verdickt
Journal: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 182-217)
Published
The Reconstruction Finance Corporation and Public Works Administration loaned 50 U.S. railroads over $1.1 billion between 1932 and 1939. The government's goal was to increase employment and decrease the likelihood of bond defaults. Bailouts appear to have had little effect on employment, but we estimate that they did increase the average wage of railroad employees. Bailouts are estimated to have reduced firm debt, but did not significantly impact bond default. We find some evidence that manufacturing firms located close to railroads benefited from bailout spillovers.
1932年至1939年间，复兴金融公司和公共工程管理局向50家美国铁路公司提供了超过11亿美元的贷款。政府的目标是增加就业并降低债券违约的可能性。救助似乎对就业影响甚微，但我们估计它们确实提高了铁路员工的平均工资。据估计，救助减少了企业债务，但对债券违约没有显著影响。我们发现了一些证据表明，位于铁路附近的制造企业从救助溢出效应中受益。
Erik Loualiche, Chris Vickers, Nicolas L. Ziebarth
Journal: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 85, No. 4, pp. 1040-1065)
Published
We study how firms allocate resources across their constituent establishments in response to local economic shocks in the context of the Great Depression. Using establishment-level data from the Census of Manufactures, we find that establishments in multi-plant firms are affected by local shocks in the regions in which the other establishments comprising the firm are located. In particular, establishment employment is positively affected by positive shocks to the local supply of credit to other establishments that make up the firm. Our results show the important role of firms in the geographic propagation of local economic shocks.
我们研究了大萧条背景下，企业如何在各组成工厂之间分配资源以应对当地经济冲击。利用制造业普查的工厂层面数据，我们发现多工厂企业的工厂受到企业其他工厂所在地区当地冲击的影响。具体而言，工厂就业受到企业其他工厂所在地信贷供给正向冲击的积极影响。我们的结果表明了企业在当地经济冲击地理传播中的重要作用。
Michela Carlana, Marco Tabellini
Journal: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 85, No. 4, pp. 1001-1039)
Published
We study the effects of immigration on natives' marriage, fertility, and family formation across U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930. Using a shift-share design, we find that natives living in cities that received more immigrants were more likely to marry, have children, and leave the parental house earlier. Our evidence suggests that immigration increased native men's employment, thereby raising the supply of native "marriageable men." We consider alternative channels—such as compositional changes among the natives, sex ratios, natives' cultural reactions, and economic competition faced by native women. We conclude that none of them, alone, can explain our results.
我们研究了1910年至1930年间移民对美国城市本地人婚姻、生育和家庭形成的影响。利用份额偏移设计，我们发现生活在接收更多移民城市的本地人更有可能结婚、生育子女并更早离开父母家庭。我们的证据表明，移民增加了本地男性的就业，从而提高了本地"适婚男性"的供给。我们考虑了替代渠道——如本地人口构成变化、性别比、本地人的文化反应以及本地女性面临的经济竞争。我们得出结论，其中任何单一渠道都无法解释我们的结果。