Digest Summary 摘要

This issue brings together 6 recent papers from leading Chinese economics journals. The set centers on how artificial intelligence and digital technologies reshape skills, wages, labor allocation, and regional development, while also touching on labor disputes and entrepreneurship through institutional and market channels. 本期整理了 6 篇来自国内重要经济学期刊的近期论文,聚焦人工智能与数字技术如何重塑职业技能、工资结构、劳动力配置和区域发展,并延伸到劳动争议与科技创业等制度和市场议题。

Search scope 检索范围

经济研究 世界经济 管理世界 经济学(季刊) 中国农村经济 数量经济与技术经济研究 中国工业经济

Recent Papers 近期论文

Quantitative Economics & Technical Economics Research 《数量经济技术经济研究》

Artificial Intelligence, Occupational Skill Reshaping, and Wage Effects 人工智能技术、职业技能重塑与工资效应

He Xiaogang, Mao Xinya, Guo Xiaobin 何小钢、毛莘娅、郭晓斌
数量经济技术经济研究 Date: 2026 Topics: AI, Skills, Wages

Abstract: Abstract unavailable on the current page snapshot. This paper is included for topic tracking because it directly addresses how artificial intelligence reshapes occupational skills and wage outcomes.

摘要:当前页面快照未提供摘要原文。该文仍纳入本期速递,因为其直接聚焦人工智能如何重塑职业技能结构及其工资效应。

Asymmetric Impacts of Digital Technology on Different Types of Occupational Skills: Comparing AI and Non-AI Technologies 数字技术对不同类型职业技能的非对称性冲击——基于人工智能与非人工智能技术比较的视角

Wang Linhui, Feng Tong, Cao Yutong 王林辉、冯彤、曹宇彤
数量经济技术经济研究 Date: 2026 Topics: Digital Technology, Skills

Abstract: Abstract unavailable on the current page snapshot. The title suggests a comparison between AI and non-AI technologies in how they differentially affect occupational skill demand.

摘要:当前页面快照未提供摘要原文。根据标题,该文重点比较人工智能与非人工智能数字技术对不同职业技能需求的非对称冲击。

Management World 《管理世界》

Spatial Effects of the Digital Economy: A Trade-Cost Perspective 数字经济的空间效应——基于贸易成本的视角

Liu Lin, Cai Hongbo, Mao Jian 刘琳、蔡宏波、毛健
管理世界 Topics: Digital Economy, Labor Mobility

Abstract: The digital economy is becoming a key force in supporting the construction of a unified national market. Using a multi-region and multi-industry general equilibrium model with domestic production networks and interregional labor mobility, this paper studies how regional digital development affects interprovincial trade costs and then quantifies its effects on local economies and spatial patterns. The results show strong local GDP gains, mixed siphoning and diffusion spillovers, and differentiated development paths driven by productivity, labor reallocation, and terms-of-trade channels. The growth effect is nonlinear and subject to threshold effects, with production networks accounting for more than half of the aggregate gains.

摘要:数字经济正在成为助力构建全国统一大市场的关键力量。本文基于贸易成本视角,将区域数字经济发展程度纳入一个包括国内生产网络和地区间劳动力流动的多地区多行业一般均衡模型,进而讨论数字经济对省际贸易成本的影响并估计相应弹性。在此基础上,本文通过一系列反事实分析,量化研究了数字经济对各地经济及空间格局的影响,并挖掘其影响机制。本文发现,各地区数字经济增长显著提升本地生产总值,但其空间溢出效应呈现虹吸与扩散并存的复杂情况;此外,数字经济促使各地区形成差异化发展路径。这种异质性源于数字经济通过生产率、劳动力再配置和贸易条件 3 个渠道的差异化作用。数字经济对经济的促进作用表现出明显的非线性特征,需达到一定门槛才能释放增长潜力,该门槛效应主要由贸易条件效应驱动。生产网络在数字经济影响传导中扮演关键角色,贡献了超过半数的增长效应。本文结论对理解数字经济时代的区域协调发展和构建全国统一大市场具有重要政策启示。

World Economy 《世界经济》

Artificial Intelligence Technological Change and Population Growth 人工智能技术进步与人口增长

Wang Yubing, Guo Kaiming 王钰冰、郭凯明
世界经济 Date: 2026, Vol. 49, No. 5 Topics: AI, Population, Wages

Abstract: Grasping the economic drivers of population growth is important for promoting high-quality population development. Artificial intelligence affects both market production and household decision-making and can therefore reshape long-run population trends. The paper argues that AI may be biased toward mental or manual work in the market sector, expanding or narrowing the gender wage gap and thereby affecting population growth; similarly, in the household sector AI may tilt toward fertility quantity or quality, shifting the quantity-quality tradeoff. Simulations calibrated with Chinese data show that both mental-work-biased AI and birth-quantity-biased AI raise population growth but reduce population quality growth, while fertility-quality-biased AI can offset these effects.

摘要:把握人口增长的经济动因对于促进人口高质量发展具有重要意义。人工智能技术使得机器能够执行人类的智能行为,会作用于市场和家庭的生产生活,对人口发展长期趋势产生深远影响。从理论上看,人工智能技术进步会在市场部门呈现脑力工作或体力工作偏向型方向,分别扩大或缩小性别工资差距,进而倾向于提高或降低人口增长率;同时,也会在家庭部门呈现生育数量或生育质量偏向型方向,分别推动数量替代质量或质量替代数量,进而倾向于提高或降低人口增长率。结合中国数据的模拟分析显示,脑力工作偏向型和生育数量偏向型人工智能技术均可以显著提高人口数量增长率,但也会降低人口质量增长率,而生育质量偏向型人工智能技术对此可以有效对冲。

China Economics Quarterly 《经济学(季刊)》

How Do Export Shocks Affect Labor Relations? Text Analysis Based on Big Data from China Judgments Online 出口冲击如何影响劳动关系?——基于中国裁判文书网劳动争议大数据的文本分析

Chen Yongbing, Zhang Xinxin, Tu Yunfeng 陈勇兵、张欣欣、涂云峰
经济学(季刊) Topics: Labor Economics

Abstract: Using judicial litigation data on labor disputes from China Judgments Online and an offset-share instrumental-variable design, this paper examines how export shocks affect labor relations. The results show that export shocks caused by weak external demand worsen labor relations, as reflected in a significant increase in regional labor dispute cases. The mechanism evidence further suggests that these shocks deteriorate not only explicit labor outcomes such as wages and employment, but also increase disputes related to implicit rights and interests including working hours, job stability, and welfare benefits.

摘要:本文利用中国裁判文书网的劳动争议司法诉讼数据,基于“偏移-份额”工具变量方法,考察了出口冲击对劳动关系的影响。研究发现:外需不足引致的出口冲击恶化了劳动关系,表现为地区劳动争议案件明显增加。进一步分析发现,外需不足引致的出口冲击不仅导致了劳动力工资和就业等显性条件的恶化,而且使得以在岗劳动力工作时长、工作稳定性和福利待遇等隐性权益诉求为主的案件明显增加。

Personal Bankruptcy Pilots Promote Urban Technology Entrepreneurship 个人破产试点促进城市科技创业活跃度提升

Tang Xudong, Wang Lin, Ye Yongwei 汤旭东、王琳、叶永卫
经济学(季刊) Topics: Entrepreneurship, Employment

Abstract: Exploiting the staggered rollout of personal bankruptcy pilots as a quasi-natural experiment and using business registration data and city statistical yearbooks from 2015 to 2022, this paper applies a staggered DID design. Relative to non-pilot cities, pilot cities see a 36.7% increase in technology entrepreneurship activity. The main channels are reduced fear of failure, improved financing conditions, and a better business environment. The policy effect is stronger in cities with better education and science resources, higher urbanization, and more complete factor markets, and it also boosts patent output and private-sector employment absorption.

摘要:本文利用各地渐次推行个人破产试点这一准实验,基于 2015—2022 年工商注册数据和城市统计年鉴,采用渐进 DID 的方法发现:相对于非试点城市,试点城市的科技创业活跃度提升 36.7%。缓解创业者的失败顾虑、优化城市融资环境和营商环境是其作用机制。政策效应在科教质量、城镇化水平更高以及要素市场更完善的城市中更显著。此外,科技创业的活跃提升了城市专利产出和民营经济就业吸纳量。本文对激发科创活力、推进个人破产正式立法具有政策参考价值。